U.S. revenue growth accelerated to 47% in Q3, but Sportradar did not break out the category’s contribution. The CFO expects significant growth in 2027.
Prediction markets made their first positive contribution to Sportradar’s third-quarter results, CEO Carsten Koerl said, as the company expanded its relationships with exchanges, brokers and market makers.
Prediction markets have become a meaningful new revenue stream, demonstrating our ability to monetize our core capabilities in adjacent markets,” CFO Craig Felenstein added during the earnings call.
The company did not disclose how much of its €98 million U.S. revenue was from prediction markets. The third quarter saw U.S. revenue rising 47%, accelerating from approximately 10% growth in the first half.
Marketing & Media Services revenue increased 15%, compared with roughly 3% in the first half, according to calculations based on Sportradar’s reported results.
According to Koerl, IMG Arena content meaningfully contributed to revenue growth, while Felenstein added that the World Cup generated about $2.5 billion in additional Managed Trading Services turnover.
The CEO also pointed to competition among prediction-market operators to acquire and engage customers, driving demand for Sportradar’s marketing services.
Agreements Span Exchanges, Brokers and Market Makers
Asked by Bank of America analyst Sean Kelly whether prediction markets had contributed to U.S. growth, Koerl said Q3 was the first quarter in which the company saw a positive impact.
He described an ecosystem that now includes three exchange partners (Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig), a first broker agreement with Robinhood and around 10 market-maker agreements.
The Polymarket partnership now covers more than 20 sports leagues and competitions. It has expanded from a single sport to a broader package of services, while Kalshi uses Sportradar’s data, integrity, fan-engagement and customer-acquisition products.
The expanded network follows delays that affected Sportradar’s second-quarter outlook. Management then said completing prediction-market agreements took longer than expected, postponing anticipated revenue and contributing to its reduction in full-year guidance. Koerl’s latest comments indicate those partnerships are now beginning to contribute.
Market makers are a particular focus. In response to Citizens analyst Jordan Bender, Koerl estimated the wider pool at more than 300 firms, depending on which exchanges are included. He said those firms are looking for faster data to support sports-event trading.
“For example, in tennis, we get the line calls 0.2 seconds faster than anybody else,” Koerl said, describing the company’s official feed.
He added Sportradar is developing a prediction-market feed using real-time data and technology, including an NBA model intended to predict events seconds ahead.
The company said prediction markets require minimal incremental investment. Sportradar can serve those customers with infrastructure it already uses for betting, adding:
We are using the same rights, same technology, and the same teams that already power our betting business.”
‘Significant Growth’ For Prediction Markets in 2027
Sportradar expects prediction markets to contribute more in 2027, although management declined to give an estimate.
UBS analyst Robin Farley asked Felenstein to estimate prediction-market revenue on an annualized basis. The CFO did not give a number, saying the deals combine fixed fees with variable payments tied to market growth.
We do expect there to be some significant growth for prediction markets next year,” Felenstein said. “It’s just really hard for us to quantify that specifically as an individual piece of our business.”
In the second quarter, Koerl said prediction markets could generate “tens of millions” of euros in revenue in 2026, and significantly more in 2027.
Prediction markets have become more important as traditional online sports betting growth slows. Responding to Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino, Felenstein said the market was growing more slowly than when Sportradar set its earlier targets, with prediction markets replacing some of the anticipated growth.
Koerl said the two markets are complementary, with prediction markets bringing additional demand for Sportradar’s data and services alongside sports betting.
That new business is also helping counter headwinds elsewhere. Farley asked whether maintaining guidance despite disruption in Brazil effectively represented an improved outlook for the rest of the company.
We’re seeing some nice upside for prediction markets. But then you have this flip side, which is the Brazil reality, which is the uncertainty around Brazil,” Felenstein said.
He added that the guidance range reflected both positive and negative developments, without quantifying how much prediction-market growth was offsetting the Brazilian headwind.
Q3 Results: Revenue Rises 24%, Full-Year Outlook Maintained
Sportradar reported third-quarter revenue of €362.5 million, up 24% year over year. U.S. revenue accounted for 27% of total revenue, compared with 23% a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 21% to €102.2 million. However, its margin declined from 29.0% to 28.2%. Profit for the period rose 20% to €27 million.
Sports-rights expenses increased 54% to €111.7 million, primarily reflecting IMG Arena content. Felenstein said a smaller portion related to prediction-market opportunities, with those costs tied directly to revenue generation.
Year-to-date free cash flow increased 18% to €177 million, with free cash flow conversion of 72%.
Sportradar repurchased $157 million of shares during Q3, bringing its 2026 purchases through October 30 to $408 million, or 28 million shares. Since the repurchase plan began, it has bought back $519 million, or 34 million shares.
The company also agreed to sell Atrium Sports to Teamworks Innovations for $170 million. The transaction is expected to close in Q4, subject to customary closing conditions.
Sportradar maintained its 2026 outlook for revenue of €1.518 billion to €1.533 billion and adjusted EBITDA of €360 million to €368 million at current exchange rates. The guidance excludes the anticipated sale of Atrium Sports, pending completion.
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