The Gambling Wire: Prediction Markets Top $10 Billion as Election Betting Faces Public Opposition

Another record weekend highlights the industry’s rapid growth, while a new poll reveals widespread opposition to betting on elections and government affairs.

Another weekend, another prediction market trading record. Kalshi approached $8 billion in trading volume over two days as the industry topped $10 billion, with combos continuing to drive the surge. But the growth comes with a striking contrast: a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found widespread opposition to betting on elections, military actions and government decisions.

Meanwhile, Kalshi and Polymarket have already cited the CFTC’s latest regulatory proposals in their court battles with states; Google has restricted prediction market advertising in Connecticut; and Macquarie sees considerably more room for industry growth this year.

The Big Story: Prediction Markets Set Another Weekend Trading Record

Prediction market platforms generated more than $10 billion in notional trading volume over the weekend, setting a new record.

TickerTracker recorded $10.4 billion across tracked platforms, an 11% increase from the previous weekend. DefiRate separately reported approximately $10.5 billion.

As expected, Kalshi dominated the weekend. TickerTracker reported $7.87 billion in event-contract volume, including consecutive daily records of $3.91 billion on Saturday and $3.96 billion on Sunday. DefiRate reported approximately $7.9 billion for Kalshi across the two days, although its daily figures differed.

KalshiData reported an even higher figure of more than $8 billion for Kalshi over the weekend, including $4.29 billion on Sunday. However, its estimates also include perpetual futures.

Combos continued to drive trading volume. TickerTracker estimated that they accounted for roughly 70% of Kalshi’s volume on both days, while The Block put their Saturday share at approximately 66%. Sunday’s breakdown was not yet available from The Block.

The popularity of combos has also resulted in increasingly complex contracts. TickerTracker identified a football combination containing 453 legs over the weekend, while several others involved more than 250 selections.

Aside from Kalshi, TickerTracker estimated that Polymarket US generated $1.18 billion in weekend trading volume, a 13.2% increase from the preceding weekend. DkEx followed with $391 million, Novig with $332 million and Crypto.com subsidiary CDNA with $316 million. Underdog recorded another $196 million.

DefiRate’s figures estimated Polymarket US at approximately $1.22 billion and DraftKings Predictions at $386 million.

The Daily Wire

Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds Majority Oppose Election Betting

Most Americans oppose wagering on elections, military actions and government policy decisions, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The nationwide survey found that 60% of U.S. adults opposed betting on election results, while only 13% supported it. By political affiliation, opposition stood at 69% among Democrats and 61% among Republicans.

Opposition was even higher for markets involving U.S. military actions (65%) and government policy announcements or decisions (63%). Three-quarters of respondents regarded prediction market wagering on real-world events as a form of gambling, while only 8% disagreed.

Opposition was lowest for sports event contracts. About 43% were against trading on sports, while 29% supported it.

The findings echo a June POLITICO/Public First poll, which found that 44% of Americans believed election betting should be illegal, compared with 30% who supported its legalization.

Kalshi and Polymarket Cite New CFTC Rules in State Litigation

As expected, Kalshi and Polymarket have immediately used the CFTC’s latest regulatory actions, including an interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling products from the definition of a swap, as supplemental authority in ongoing litigation.

In Maryland, Kalshi filed a letter with the Fourth Circuit arguing that the new proposals reinforce the distinction between federally regulated event contracts and casino gambling, which remains under state oversight.

The company also urged the court to wait until the CFTC’s proposed rule is finalized before ruling, if the court remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, Polymarket filed for a preliminary injunction against New York officials, citing the same proposals to support its federal preemption argument.

The company also warned that New York’s attempt to prohibit it from operating “within or from” the state could effectively shut down its exchange nationwide, since Polymarket US operates from New York. Kalshi and the CFTC have raised similar concerns in Kalshi’s dispute with the state.

Macquarie Forecasts $187 Billion in 2026 Prediction Market Volume

Macquarie expects U.S. prediction market taker volume to reach $186.8 billion in 2026, up from approximately $22 billion in 2025.

In an Oct. 9 research note seen by Gambling Insider, analysts Chad Beynon, Aaron Lee and Sam Ghafir estimated September industry taker volume at $20.1 billion, with Kalshi holding a 67% market share.

Sports contracts accounted for approximately $17 billion, with Kalshi controlling 63% of that volume, compared with 4% for DraftKings and 3% for FanDuel.

However, Macquarie expects established sportsbooks to gain market share as their geographic availability expands. During Week 4 of the NFL season, Kalshi accounted for 40% of category app downloads, followed by Polymarket at 14%, DraftKings at 11%, and FanDuel at 7%.

The analysts identified sports-contract regulation as the industry’s largest long-term risk amid conflicting federal court rulings.

Macquarie measures taker volume rather than headline notional volume, which the analysts say counts prediction market activity approximately three times over. Its 67% September estimate is below the roughly 75% to 80% Kalshi share recorded in recent weekends, although the figures use different methodologies and reporting periods.

Google Adds Connecticut to Prediction Market Advertising Exclusions

Google’s advertising policy now lists Connecticut as one of the states where advertisements for prediction market contracts and related products are prohibited. Connecticut follows Michigan and New York, which were added in July, Ohio in June and Nevada at the beginning of the year.

The change follows a regulatory crackdown in the state. In September, Connecticut issued cease-and-desist orders to nine prediction market platforms and issued nearly 30 subpoenas to gaming service provider license holders and Connecticut media outlets, including Google.

The updated policy means prediction market operators cannot use Google Ads to target Connecticut customers, even if they hold the federal certifications required to advertise in other states.

Polymarket US Overhauls Maker and Taker Rebates

Polymarket US is changing its trading incentives, introducing volume-based maker rebates and revising taker rebates beginning Oct. 19.

According to a notice circulated to users, the new maker rebate structure will replace a flat fee coefficient of -0.0125 with volume-based rates. Traders generating less than $10 million in monthly maker volume will receive no rebate, while those in the highest tier, with monthly volume exceeding $200 million, will receive a rebate coefficient of -0.0104.

Taker rebates will range from 0% for traders with monthly volume below $250,000 to 30% for those with monthly volume exceeding $50 million.

The changes follow the scheduled Oct. 15 elimination of an additional 17% weekly crypto maker rebate.

Study Finds Expired Charity and Campaign Domains Repurposed for Gambling

An audit by SEO research publication Backlinking.com found that 448 of 3,692 expired domains (about 12%) purchased at auction between January 2024 and May 2026 were converted into gambling or betting websites. Buyers paid a combined $22.3 million for the domains examined in the study.

A follow-up check 30 days later found that 865 domains had changed their status. Another 170 had become gambling pages, while 133 previously identified gambling pages no longer qualified, bringing ]the total to 485.

Among the examples identified were former websites associated with the United Nations-backed Every Woman Every Child initiative and the UK’s Vote Leave campaign. Both were repurposed or redirected to casino-related content.

The study found that 125 of the domains converted into gambling websites had previously received links from government websites.

Researchers identified the continued value of historical backlinks as a possible incentive for acquiring the domains.

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