The Bills host the Lions in the first-ever regular-season game at Highmark Stadium on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8: 15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
This game features two explosive offenses and a massive total of 53.5 at Kalshi. Read on for TNF odds, picks, predictions, and best bets.
Lions vs. Bill Odds at Kalshi
| Outcome | Kalshi Odds | American Odds |
| Lions win | 33% | +203 |
| Bills win | 68% | -213 |
| Bills-4.5 | 51% | -104 |
| Lions +4.5 | 50% | +100 |
| Over 53.5 | 52% | -108 |
| Under 53.5 | 49% | +104 |
The Bills and Lions combined to score 67 points in their season openers. Their defenses allowed a combined 61 points. Kalshi’s pricing suggests TNF will be a high-scoring affair. In 2024, the Bills won their last meeting with the Lions, 48-42.
Best Bet Lions vs. Bills: OVER 53.5 (-108)
The Bills put up 36 points in the opener at Houston, which features one of the league’s best defenses. Josh Allen & Co. now face a Detroit defense that was exposed by New Orleans. QB Tyler Shough exploded for 410 passing yards and three TDs.
Detroit is without three of its four previous starters in the secondary, and it showed against the Saints. Buffalo will try to exploit that glaring weakness through the air. New WR DJ Moore enjoyed a nice debut for the Bills with five catches, 100 yards, and a TD against the Texans. He should be busy again on Thursday night.
Buffalo proved it could outscore one of the NFL’s top-tier teams last week, but its defense gave up 31 points to the Texans. The Lions have the weapons to keep pace with the Bills in lighting up the scoreboard. Jahmyr Gibbs is arguably the best running back in the league. He carried the ball 29 times for 156 yards and two TDs against the Saints.
Jared Goff also has a top target in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had 10 catches for 67 yards and a pair of scores against New Orleans. There will be playmakers all over the new Highmark Stadium field, which was completely re-sodded earlier this month. Hopefully, it holds up much better than the first iteration.
Pick: OVER 53.5
Best Player Prop for Lions vs. Bills
Josh Allen 250+ Passing Yards (52%, -108)
Kalshi offers a sliding scale for Allen’s total passing yards, ranging from 175 to 375. Given the blueprint that Shough laid out last week against the Lions, expect Allen to comfortably exceed this number. He scorched a solid Houston defense for 334 passing yards in the opener.
Detroit’s secondary is highly vulnerable, so we don’t mind “laddering” this bet on Allen up to 300+ passing yards. With a 23% implied probability, that bet would pay out at +335 odds. The risk is worth the reward in this case.
Expect Allen to shine in his official Highmark Stadium debut.
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