Aviv Sher – CEO for Nasdaq-listed operator Codere Online – has long preached a cautious approach to expansion into new markets. With Brazil’s licensed sector now shut down, he tells iGB how that measured strategy has helped the company to avoid a costly misstep.
The launch of Brazil’s regulated market at the start of 2025 was seen as a seismic moment, as a sports-loving nation of over 200 million people opened its doors to licensed online gambling.
International companies looked to get in on the act. Flutter, Entain and Betano all had a licensed presence, with the former doing so by acquiring a 56% stake in the Betnacional owner NSX Group in a deal worth upwards of $350 million.
However, while other global operators flocked to Brazil, Sher and Codere Online remained steadfast in stating that while the opportunity interested them, the financial outlay and potential for regulatory instability meant they were keeping the market at arm’s length.
That decision looks to have paid off for Codere Online. In late September, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva banned the licensed sector, closing a market that was projected to contribute up to BRL16 billion ($3.18 billion) in tax to government coffers by the end of 2026.
Brazil fallout raises concerns across LatAm
Sher believes Codere Online was right to stay out of Brazil, citing regulatory instability and uncertainty over taxes. He argues that changes affecting the market threaten operators that invested heavily in anticipation of a more predictable regulatory environment.
He says Codere Online’s decision to stay out of Brazil was driven by concerns over regulatory instability. The argument being that the subsequent upheaval vindicates the company’s cautious approach.
“We dodged the bullet,” Sher tells iGB.
“The worst thing is that the government broke an agreement with the regulated brands that invested hundreds of millions into the country with expectations to see returns over the coming years, whether it’s in sponsorship deals or marketing deals.”
A lot of money from the operator side flowed into the market, and there will be no return, he explains.
“I think our conservative approach here towards this market and the conservative approach that we’re constantly taking to protect our investors paid off in this case.”
Despite Codere Online not being in Brazil before the market closed, Sher is monitoring whether developments there could have broader implications for other LatAm markets.
“I think when such a large market in LatAm undergoes a significant regulatory change, you may see some effects across the region,” he continues. “Other regulators are watching closely to understand the impact and the response. It’s something the industry will continue to monitor.”
Chile, Peru and Uruguay on the watchlist
Despite its caution over Brazil and the potential broader impacts its ban could have, Sher remains interested in LatAm expansion beyond Codere Online’s current markets of Mexico, Colombia, Panama and Argentina.
“I don’t think 2027 will be a boring year,” he states.
Specifically, the company is assessing opportunities in Chile, Peru and Uruguay, although entries into these markets will hinge on certain factors.
Peru, for instance, is another opportunity that has attracted international interest, with the likes of Betsson, Bet365 and Stake all achieving licences.
But Sher says: “Peru is of interest, but not at the moment. I think many competitors came and put in money. So again, I think in the short term we will sit a little bit on the fence, see how the market evolves, CPAs and LTVs and things like that that and we will be able to take maybe a decision later.
“On the good part, not like Brazil, Peru is a very organised regulation. Everybody is happy with the regulator. Everything is quite transparent. It had a few hiccups at the beginning, but I think now it’s stabilised. So I think it’s an interesting market in the future. We are monitoring competitors that are coming in to see how they are doing.”
Frustration over delayed regulation
Meanwhile, in both Chile and Uruguay, Codere Online is waiting for online gambling regulation to come in before it makes its move.
Chile is proving to be particularly frustrating, with its online gambling bill still stuck in political limbo despite plans first kicking into motion in 2021.
“I met people that were involved in the Chilean regulation and they promised me by the end of last year that it will be out,” Sher explains. “Now we are already a year after, so I think they are moving slowly forward, [but] not fast enough.
“I think it will happen, I think there are still some debates. I think the framework is a little bit expensive. Hopefully, it will change to be a bit more lucrative. But I think they are taking their time. For me, it’s always a mistake because they are losing tax monies.
“We know that people still operate there as grey markets, still sponsoring teams over there. So there is an activity that the government doesn’t see the taxes from, and hopefully, once we see the regulation, we are able to participate in whatever they will offer.”
Weighing the cost of entering Buenos Aires
While Codere Online is already authorised and operating in the City of Buenos Aires, the company is now setting its sights on a licence that encompasses the entire province.
The province of Buenos Aires accounts for approximately 40% of Argentina’s entire population, but the legal framework only permits a maximum of seven online gambling licences.
The current licensees include Betano, Betsson, Bet365 and Stake.
Further complicating Codere Online’s plans is a recently introduced 2% levy for online slot winnings.
“The regulator over there in the province wants to introduce new taxes that will almost kill the business [and] will cut around two-thirds of the profit of all the operators over there,” Sher says. “Maybe because of that, it will create some opportunity, although now less attractive.
“So, we are waiting to see what’s going on in Argentina. [It’s] still a focus market for us. If we will be able to get the Province [of Buenos Aires], I think we will still try to get it somehow.”
Kyle Goldsmith
Kyle has been with Clarion since December 2023, joining from the world of sports journalism, subsequently becoming a LatAm-facing senior reporter with iGB.