Catena Media no longer expects to hit its 2026 target of double-digit organic growth in group revenue and adjusted EBITDA following a “weak” Q3.
The publicly-listed gambling media group has released its preliminary results for the quarter, showing that it experienced a 29% year-on-year drop in revenue from €11.6m (£9.76m) to €8.3m.
Adjusted EBITDA dropped significantly, falling by over 75% from €2.9m to €0.7m YoY, including a reversal of €0.7m of accruals made earlier in the year for the 2026 employee bonus programme.
The Malta-headquartered business, which is in the process of becoming solely North America-focused, is still lagging behind the position it was in last year nine months into 2026, despite displaying signs of what looked to be a recovery in late 2025 and early 2026.
Total adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is now at €4.6m (nine months into 2025: €5.2m) as a year which started on a positive note in Q1 has seemed to unravel later down the line due to a variety of challenges.
Catena cited search rankings declining due to AI and shifts in search engines, and a reduction of operators’ marketing revenue in the current climate as some of the main reasons for this downturn in performance.
The business also expects to recognise a non-cash impairment charge on intangible assets of €30m-€35m in Q3.
“This was a weak quarter and our results reflect that. The search landscape is undergoing a rapid and fundamental shift, and as a predominantly cost-per-acquisition (CPA)-based business our results reflect the effects of these changes immediately and in full,” said Manuel Stan, Chief Executive Officer of Catena Media.
“The results reinforce the strategic direction we set out in the second quarter. We are reducing our dependence on search by diversifying our revenue streams, including through our newly announced TraffiqX project and new verticals like prediction markets, and by continuing to build the strength of our brands through investing in customer loyalty programmes.
“These efforts will be further supported by TraffiqX, the new platform we plan to launch in the first quarter of 2027.”
More than 90% of Catena’s new customers are acquired by CPA deals, as Stan mentioned, meaning that “the group has limited recurring revenue to buffer against such a combination of market pressures”.
As Stan also stated, leadership is pinning its hopes on TraffiqX, which it will want to have a similar impact to that of its proprietary MRKTPLAYS sub-affiliation platform. MRKTPLAYS contributed to over a third of group revenue in H1 2026.
Update wobbles Catena investors
But the preliminary results, first announced on Friday, have worried Catena investors.
The firm’s share price has taken a near-20% dip so far today and sits at SEK 2.55 (£0.19) at the time of writing.
Catena stock is still up by over 50% year-to-date at the time of writing, but this update has sent it hurtling back down and well away from its yearly peak of SEK 4.40 just two months ago.
Headwinds in the industry as a whole look to have curtailed Catena’s once-steadily improving aspirations which were initially generated off the back of a Stan-led restructuring when he was first appointed as CEO in 2024.
Catena will be confident that it can dig itself out of a low point again – that much has been made clear by the appointment of former Accenture Managing Director for Sweden, Martin Zetterlund, as Interim Chief Technology Officer.
However, it may need more than luck on its side as the gambling industry across the globe continues to face challenges.