IG Group will reignite its sports betting ambitions 16 years after departing the scene, as it sets out ambitious plans to revamp the identity of the current space.
Yesterday saw the FTSE 100 firm reveal its plans for a UK prediction market launch, beginning with a rollout in late Q4 2026.
This will see IG Group offer professional investors the chance of 24/5 tax-free financial asset trading, which will be followed by a mass gambling expansion.
IG Group touching down 16 years later
As already reported, the firm has applied for a UK Gambling Commission licence and it will expand its target market to retail consumers in early 2027 as it adds non-financial categories to its predictions portfolio, such as sports, entertainment and politics.
It means IG Group re-enters the space for the first time since shutting down its sports betting unit Extrabet in 2011, when it sold the majority of its customer list to betting exchange Spreadex.
The product will be rolled out via the IG Consumer arm which has spent 18 months building its core digital infrastructure onto a single international platform. This will combine traditional CFDs, spread betting, share dealing, crypto and predictions.
Management highlighted this launch as proof of a cultural shift at IG Group – moving away from holding back when regulation is complex towards proactively embracing customer demand within the lines of that regulation.
“We see strong appetite for this product in the UK. Customers find it appealing and traffic to prediction market platforms is growing,” said IG Consumer Chief Executive Officer, Michael Healy.
“But the UK is different. Regulation is split between two regulators and retail customers cannot trade binary options. Despite this complexity, we have found a route to market with a regulated product that addresses this growing customer demand.”
It follows a $1.1bn purchase in principle for Underdog, a US-focused daily fantasy sports (DFS) and predictions operator. Management gave no signs that DFS would launch in the UK.
The predictions side of the business internationally will serve as a key engine in exposing the wider IG brand to younger audiences – over 60% of Underdog active users are under 30, while IG Group’s existing average customer age is 42.
The unified international platform featuring prediction markets will roll out across IG Consumer’s European and Asia-Pacific markets throughout 2027.
“Now we embrace and solve for changing customer needs.”
Michael Healy, CEO, IG Consumer
For IG Group, the challenge now is entering and growing a presence in a space which has been dominated by regulated gambling operators for decades on end.
The first step in this attempt comes next month as the firm rolls out a targeted market campaign on channels including Sky Sports.
Cruising into congested airspace
However, while US consumers have taken to predictions as novel products, a regulated gambling framework featuring both traditional sportsbooks and betting exchanges has existed in the UK since the 1960s.
Even if leadership think consumers no longer view investing, trading and placing a bet as separate silos, many on these shores may share a different opinion.
Multinationals and well-established UK heritage operators – the likes of Flutter’s and Entain’s key brands, as well as William Hill, bet365 and Betfred – will be viewed by many onlookers as direct competitors to IG Group as it attempts to get a stranglehold on the market.
But while acknowledging that there could be “a laundry list of potential competitors” from several sectors identified, key figures at the business aren’t looking to view traditional operators as direct competitors just yet – rather focusing on the wants of the consumer.
Breon Corcoran, CEO of IG Group, explained: “Truthfully, we won’t know what the mix [of competitors] will look like until after we’ve launched a product and we’ve established land.
“But what I think you’re really competing for is space in the consumer’s mind. Ultimately, it’s a mindset around consumers who want to express a view on the world around them.
“So it’s competing within that space really as opposed to saying it’s competitor X or competitor Y and the economics look like Z – it’s much more specific around a consumer mindset.”
Whether focusing on consumer habits or potential competitor activity, predictions may prove a tough nut to crack in the UK.
Parallels can be drawn from prediction markets and betting exchanges, and in the UK, exchange gross gambling yield (GGY) has nearly halved in the last decade.
Well-known UK betting exchange Smarkets recently revamped its interface to represent that of a US predictions platform, with CEO Jason Trost describing the two to SBC News as “not apples and oranges – they’re both apples”.
Whether that change will come to future fruition is yet to be seen but should provide a good indicator of appetite from UK consumers for IG Group beyond internal research.
Tax could provide turbulence
Tax burdens will almost immediately impact the predictions offering, with General Betting Duty (GBD) set to rise from 15% to 25% in April 2027. IG Group seems set for now to avoid the more hefty and already-implemented doubling of Remote Gaming Duty (RGD) to 40% with the firm not yet looking for a move into the iGaming space.
Healy added that he “has not heard any expression, despite engaging with multiple UK regulators, that they’re uncomfortable with us doing both side-by-side”.
Doing both side-by-side effectively will have to be proven early, though. IG Group investors will be craving positive feedback following an unsatisfactory Q3 trading update which saw the firm cut its full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook. Investors were rocked as shares dipped 25% in two days at the beginning of the month.
Full confidence ahead of takeoff
Combining financial services with gambling may look like a mammoth task given all of the factors mentioned above, but leadership remains confident.
Healey commented: “Whether effectively gambling products and financial service products can come together – I think that’s something that we think about and perhaps it is something that regulators think about, so we should address that.
“I think customers don’t always care as much as we think. We’ve seen that play out in America, where some very successful online trading platforms have launched a heavily sports-orientated prediction market product.
“Indeed, in one case [Robinhood], it has been called out as the fastest-growing vertical of this business has ever launched.”
IG Group will be seeking out similar results experienced by Robinhood, which recently generated $156m from its US-facing predictions product alone – but it may prove a more grueling test on these shores.